Could Trump be returning to the Monroe Doctrine?
President-elect Donald Trump’s recent blustering statements about making Canada America’s 51st state,
buying Greenland,
which Denmark has said is not for sale,
and taking back control of the Panama Canal,
got me thinking about the Monroe Doctrine.
Articulated in December 1823 by President James Monroe in an address to Congress, it contained three ideas: separate spheres of influence for the Americas and Europe, non-colonisation, and non-intervention. They were America’s attempt to articulate a new world order organised around spheres of influence.
… the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonisation by any European powers...
The same year US Secretary of State John Quincy Adams rejected a British suggestion to issue a joint declaration to warn any other European power from interfering in Central or Latin America, since he knew the British hadn’t kicked their imperial habit and he saw a bilateral agreement with America’s former coloniser as a constraint on future American expansion.
The US was telling the European powers to butt out, particularly from the newly independent Latin American nations. In exchange for sole influence in the western hemisphere, the US pledged to avoid political involvement in the European sphere.
By the late 19th century, American power had grown so it was in a position to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. In 1904, President Theodore Roosevelt came up with his Corollary to the doctrine, referred to as “speak softly but carry a big stick,” that stated the U.S. could intervene in the affairs of an American republic if it was threatened by a European country. This would justify American control of the Latin American countries producing the raw materials America needed. Later, it justified American interference in Cuba, and Central and Latin American sovereign nations.
Today, as the American Empire declines, is Donald Trump, consciously or unconsciously, thinking about pulling America back from its increasingly unsustainable hegemonic perch to its original sphere of influence, the Western hemisphere?
He has signalled he’s tired of funding the Ukraine war, which has European leaders in a panic. America’s goal to weaken Europe by preventing its economic integration with Russia and cutting it off from cheap energy has largely succeeded, leaving it free to walk away with Europe holding the Ukraine bag. Without American money and weapons, not only would Project Ukraine fall, but so would NATO.
Trump has made bellicose noises about China but his rhetoric has mellowed recently, perhaps because Elon Musk is telling him how important China is for his business interests. Trump is even vowing to save Chinese-owned TikTok despite signing an order to ban it during his first term.
Trump considers himself the ultimate deal maker. Could this be his biggest deal ever? In exchange for China influencing the Eastern hemisphere, America can influence the Western.
If America succeeds in buying Greenland, it gets roughly half the land area surrounding the Arctic Ocean which becomes a northern trade route as the ice melts.
Greenland is also strategically important. A US army report, “Greenland’s Critical Role in North America; The U.S. Way Ahead,” said:
Greenland’s massive land mass sits astride direct sea routes from Europe to the U.S. and over the pole. If Greenland falls further under the influence of China or Russia, the security implications for both the U.S. and Canada are clear. Increasing diplomacy, trade, and security cooperation with Greenland, both directly and through the Danish government, would solidify North America and the adjacent part of the Arctic as a stable and secure area that would substantially contribute to U.S. homeland defense.
Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, who in the past has been linked to dodgy businesses, drug dealing and Ponzi schemes, will turn his attention to Latin America where he’ll pile more pressure onto Venezuela for starters. Its economy has been crippled by US sanctions, enabling its looting by foreign corporations. And no doubt Rubio will try to install, with CIA help, another puppet regime.
Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand will fall into the Eastern sphere, perhaps gratefully. And Australia and New Zealand will finally have a good excuse to dump King Charles.
Africa lies mainly in the Eastern sphere but also partly in the Western. If given a choice, most African countries will probably choose to be a part of the former since they don’t like being colonised, bombed and starved and China has invested heavily in the continent through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Which leaves the Middle East. Geographically, it’s in the Eastern sphere but American attachment to and funding of the deranged state of Israel makes this tricky. However, I’m betting that it will eventually happen because the Zionist state has made too many implacable enemies to be able to survive in its current form, if at all. And in the short term, Trump could always make it another US state, although he would get some pushback from the other 50!
All of this is, of course, tongue in cheek speculation on my part.
Where is Scotland in this new order? I’d like to see an independent Scotland part of a Nordic Alliance that concentrates on trade and cooperation with nations in both hemispheres. I’m allowed to dream…
Just a a eureka moment .
If Trump is placing so much importance on the Panama Canal in terms of access for the US navy having access to both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, it would be the perfect waterway for deployment of the nuclear submarines here in Scotland, come independence.
With plenty of land either side to rebuild and deep enough water close to either end for ease of access to the European access to those countries and to the middle and eastern countries via the Pacific.
It's the perfect answer to rid Scotland of all the so-called nuclear deterrent facilities based here in Holy Loch and elsewhere in the UK, forever.
A very interesting over view. Thank you Leah.