Professor Blyth is wrong about Scotland

Published in the Edinburgh Evening News, March 28th, 2024.

Professor Mark Blyth made some very silly comments at a recent Scottish economics conference where he was invited to speak. He claimed an independent Scotland would have a negative balance of payments, would have nothing to sell to the world, and would have to pay its share of UK debt. He’s wrong on all three counts.  

Scotland is the only UK nation that has run a persistent trade surplus in goods since records  began. The world wants what Scotland produces, whether it’s whisky, salmon or energy. By contrast, England runs chronic deficits in international trade in goods.    

Which leads to Blyth’s second absurd claim that Scotland would have nothing to sell. Taking just energy, Scotland’s renewables capacity is so vast that it is on track to deliver nearly half of Europe’s offshore grid supply by 2035. We’re currently cabling billions of pounds of renewables to England and getting little in return. 

And we know all about the 1970s McCrone report that revealed that North Sea oil would make Scotland one of the wealthiest countries on the planet, which is why the UK government suppressed it, allowing London to squander our oil on tax cuts and then to sell it off to private corporations and foreign governments. Unless we end this thieving union, our renewables wealth will meet the same fate. 

Third, the UK government acknowledged that Scotland would have no legal obligation to pay any UK debt because Scotland incurred no part of that debt. Rather, most would argue that the UK should compensate Scotland for centuries of plundering. 

The great Scottish philosopher, Adam Smith, understood that a nation’s wealth comes from the goods and services it produces. If those have value, the currency has value and the nation is wealthy.

Surprisingly for an economics professor, Professor Blyth asks the wrong question. It’s not ‘would Scotland have the money to meet peoples’ needs,’ but ‘would it have the human and material resources to meet those needs?’ The answer is yes, in abundance. If he were honest, Professor Blyth would acknowledge this.